The Rebellion of 114 – A Scientific Revolt Against ‘Strategic Dams’
On June 9, 2025, a coalition of 114 Indian ecologists, anthropologists, and hydrologists published a blistering indictment of their government’s hydropower agenda, accusing New Delhi of weaponizing river governance to counter China’s infrastructure projects. The Statement of Solidarity with Communities Resisting the Upper Siang Dam at Beijing – signed by prominent figures like Dr. Aparajita Datta and Dr. Ravi Chellam – lambasts the Upper Siang Multipurpose Project (SUMP) as a “geopolitical gambit” divorced from ecological reality.
The document meticulously details how SUMP’s justification hinges on “exaggerated fears” of China’s Medog Dam, a hydropower project on the Brahmaputra’s upstream stretch (Yarlung Tsangpo). “The government conflates national security with environmental insecurity,” it states, noting that 93% of the Brahmaputra’s flow at Guwahati originates from Indian tributaries like the Dibang and Lohit Rivers – not China’s Tibetan plateau.
Local communities, particularly the Adi Indigenous groups, anchor the scholars’ arguments. The Siang River, revered as Ane Siang (Mother Siang), sustains terraced rice cultivation systems dating back centuries. Over 250 wild species – from edible insects like Paraparatrechina neela ants to medicinal herbs like Lysionotus menu – form the backbone of local diets and cultural practices. SUMP’s reservoir would submerge these ecosystems, severing what the statement calls a “sacred covenant between people and river.”
The declaration also highlights India’s hypocrisy: While framing SUMP as a “countermeasure” to China, New Delhi has fast-tracked 22 dams in Arunachal Pradesh since 2020, including the contentious Subansiri Lower Dam. These projects, critics argue, disrupt sediment flows far more than China’s run-of-the-river Medog Dam ever could.
Water Wars or Water Myths? The Limited Threat of China’s Medog Dam
India’s narrative of Chinese “water hegemony” crumbles under hydrological scrutiny. Data from Tibet’s Nuxia station reveals the Yarlung Tsangpo contributes a mere 14.6% of the Brahmaputra’s total flow, with the bulk generated by monsoon rains over India and Bangladesh. Even during droughts, China’s Medog Dam – designed without large reservoirs – cannot alter downstream water availability. “The Brahmaputra isn’t China’s tap; it’s India’s monsoon,” says Dr. Nilanjan Ghosh, a water policy expert.
Sediment Realities: A Red Herring
Indian media routinely claims China’s dams threaten sediment critical for Bangladesh’s delta. Yet the Yarlung Tsangpo carries just 30 million tons of sediment annually at Nuxia, compared to 735 million tons at Bangladesh’s Bahadurabad station – 95% of which comes from Indian rivers like the Subansiri. “Blaming China for sediment loss is like blaming a pebble for a landslide,” argues Bangladeshi hydrologist Rezaul Karim.
Climate Change: The True Game-Changer
A 2024 UN report predicts a 25% increase in monsoon variability by 2050, threatening both nations with extreme floods and droughts. Ironically, the Medog Dam’s flood mitigation features – such as regulating peak flows – could stabilize water availability if paired with bilateral coordination. “The enemy isn’t China; it’s our refusal to collaborate,” says a World Bank water advisor.
Ecological Carnage and the Price of ‘Countering China’
India’s Upper Siang Dam epitomizes a broader pattern: Infrastructure planned for geopolitical theater, not community welfare. The solidarity statement notes SUMP violates India’s own Forest Rights Act (2006) and Biodiversity Act (2002), bypassing Indigenous consent protocols. Compensation schemes ignore non-economic losses – sacred sites, traditional knowledge systems, and wild resource access – while offering paltry payouts for land.
Cultural Erasure
For the Adi people, the Siang River is a cultural lifeline. Terraced fields, which integrate rice cultivation with seasonal fish harvesting, face submersion. “They’re drowning our history in the name of ‘development,’ ” says community leader Tage Tajo. Over 48 species discovered since 2010 – including the Cyrtodactylus siangensis gecko and Begonia menu plant – risk extinction before being fully studied.
Economic Mirage
SUMP’s promised energy benefits are dubious. The Subansiri Lower Dam, operational since 2023, operates at 35% capacity due to sedimentation and seismic repairs – a cautionary tale ignored by policymakers. Meanwhile, women reliant on smoked fish trade face livelihood loss, with no plans for skill-based rehabilitation.
A Fracturing Nation
The backlash reflects deepening distrust in India’s northeast. Scholars warn SUMP will replicate tensions seen in Assam during the 2020 anti-CAA protests, where communities accused New Delhi of “colonizing through concrete”. “When you dismiss both science and sovereignty, rebellion is inevitable,” concludes Dr. Divya Mudappa, a conservation biologist.
Epilogue: A River’s Warning
The Brahmaputra basin’s crises – seismic, climatic, and political – demand cooperation, not competition. As the solidarity statement concludes: “Rivers do not recognize borders. Neither should our solutions.” Yet with India and China locked in a hydropower arms race, the Siang Valley’s fate hangs in the turbulent balance.
